Agents have objectives they value
Agents face constraints
Make tradeoffs to maximize objectives within constraints
Agents compete with others over scarce resources
Agents adjust behaviors based on prices
Stable outcomes when adjustments stop
Each of us acts purposefully
We have ends, goals, desires, objectives
We use means in the world that we believe will achieve our ends
Acting with purpose distinguishes humans from everything else in the universe
Artificial intelligence researchers face “the frame problem”
Machine learning and artificial intelligence are “dumb”
With the right models and research designs, we can say “X causes Y” and quantify it!
Economists are in a unique position to make causal claims that mere statistics cannot
For more, see my blog post, and Pearl & MacKenzie (2018), The Book of Why
“First, the field of economics has spent decades developing a toolkit aimed at investigating empirical relationships, focusing on techniques to help understand which correlations speak to a causal relationship and which do not. This comes up all the time — does Uber Express Pool grow the full Uber user base, or simply draw in users from other Uber products? Should eBay advertise on Google, or does this simply syphon off people who would have come through organic search anyway? Are African-American Airbnb users rejected on the basis of their race? These are just a few of the countless questions that tech companies are grappling with, investing heavily in understanding the extent of a causal relationship.”
Perhaps the most fundamental economic “law” is the law of demand:
We investigate its source, and derive more useful properties
First, we will need to develop a more rigorous framework
How do people decide:
Rational choice theory: assume that people optimize within constraints
A model of behavior we can extend to most scenarios
Often called “Consumer Theory” in textbooks, but realize:
Everyone is “a consumer”
We are really modeling how individuals make choices in almost any context!
Imagine a (very strange) supermarket sells x and y
Your choices: amounts of {x,y} to consume as a bundle
We can represent bundles graphically
We’ll stick with 2 goods (x,y) in 2-dimensions†
Example:
† See appendix in today's class page to extend to n goods!
If you had $100 to spend, what bundles of goods {x,y} would you buy?
Only those bundles that are affordable
Denote prices of each good as {px,py}
Let m be the amount of income a person has
If you had $100 to spend, what bundles of goods {x,y} would you buy?
Only those bundles that are affordable
Denote prices of each good as {px,py}
Let m be the amount of income a person has
A bundle {x,y} is affordable at given prices {px,py} when:
pxx+pyy≤m
pxx+pyy≤m
pxx+pyy≤m
pxx+pyy=m
† Note the difference (the in/equality): budget constraint is the subset of the budget set that spends all income.
pxx+pyy=m
pxx+pyy=m
y=mpy−pxpyx
pxx+pyy=m
y=mpy−pxpyx
pxx+pyy=m
y=mpy−pxpyx
pxx+pyy=m
y=mpy−pxpyx
Example: Suppose you have an income of $50 to spend on lattes (l) and burritos (b). The price of lattes is $5 and the price of burritos is $10.
Let l be on the horizontal axis and b be on the vertical axis.
Write an equation for the budget constraint (in graphable form).
Graph the budget constraint.
Points on the line spend all income
Points beneath line are affordable but don't use all income
Points on the line spend all income
Points beneath line are affordable but don't use all income
Points above line are unaffordable (now)
Slope: tradeoff between x and y at market prices
Relative price of x, or the opportunity cost of x:
Consuming 1 more unit of x requires giving up pxpy units of y
Opportunity cost: value of next best foregone opportunity
Even though we use money for prices, when you consume x, you’re really giving up the opportunity to consume y!
Frederic Bastiat
1801-1850
Frederic Bastiat
1801-1850
That Which is Seen and That Which is Not Seen
“That which is seen”
Frederic Bastiat
1801-1850
That Which is Seen and That Which is Not Seen
“That which is seen”
“That which is not seen”
What does it mean to say that “spending money 'stimulates' the economy”?
Scarce resources used in one industry can not be used in other industries
Every (visible) decision to spend on X yields more X, and destroys an (invisible) opportunity to spend on Y
Source: Perry, Mark, 2022, “Chart of the Day...Or Century?” American Enterprise Institute
“The Baumol effect is easy to explain but difficult to grasp. In 1826, when Beethoven’s String Quartet No. 14 was first played, it took four people 40 minutes to produce a performance. In 2010, it still took four people 40 minutes to produce a performance. Stated differently, in the nearly 200 years between 1826 and 2010, there was no growth in string quartet labor productivity. In 1826 it took 2.66 labor hours to produce one unit of output, and it took 2.66 labor hours to produce one unit of output in 2010.”
Sources: Helland, Eric and Alexander Tabarrok, 2019, “Why Are The Prices So Damn High?” Mercatus Center
Good summaries on Marginal Revolution
“Fortunately, most other sectors of the economy have experienced substantial growth in labor productivity since 1826...In 1826 the average hourly wage for a production worker was $1.14. In 2010 the average hourly wage for a production worker was $26.44, approximately 23 times higher in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Growth in average labor productivity has a surprising implication: it makes the output of slow productivity-growth sectors (relatively) more expensive. In 1826, the average wage of $1.14 meant that the 2.66 hours needed to produce a performance of Beethoven’s String Quartet No. 14 had an opportunity cost of just $3.02. At a wage of $26.44, the 2.66 hours of labor in music production had an opportunity cost of $70.33. Thus, in 2010 it was 23 times...more expensive to produce a performance of Beethoven’s String Quartet No. 14 than in 1826.”
Sources: Helland, Eric and Alexander Tabarrok, 2019, “Why Are The Prices So Damn High?” Mercatus Center
Good summaries on Marginal Revolution
“In other words, one had to give up more other goods and services to produce a music performance in 2010 than one did in 1826. Why? Simply because in 2010, society was better at producing other goods and services than in 1826.”
Sources: Helland, Eric and Alexander Tabarrok, 2019, “Why Are The Prices So Damn High?” Mercatus Center
Good summaries on Marginal Revolution
“The 23 times increase in the relative price of the string quartet is the driving force of Baumol’s cost disease. The focus on relative prices tells us that the cost disease is misnamed. The cost disease is not a disease but a blessing. To be sure, it would be better if productivity increased in all industries, but that is just to say that more is better. There is nothing negative about productivity growth, even if it is unbalanced.”
Sources: Helland, Eric and Alexander Tabarrok, 2019, “Why Are The Prices So Damn High?” Mercatus Center
Good summaries on Marginal Revolution
m=pxx+pyyy=mpy−pxpyx
Budget constraint is a function of specific parameters
Economic analysis: how changes in constraints affect people's choices
Example:
Slope unchanged (no change in prices!)
Gain/loss of affordable bundles
Example: Continuing the lattes and burritos example, (income is $50, lattes are $5, burritos are $10), suppose your income doubles to $100.
Find the equation of the new budget constraint (in graphable form).
Graph the new budget constraint.
Example:
Change in slope: −p′xpy, −p′′xpy
Gain/loss of affordable bundles
Example:
Change in slope: −pxp′y, −pxp′′y
Gain/loss of affordable bundles
Economic analysis is about (changes in) relative prices
Budget constraint slope (opportunity cost of x) is −pxpy
Only “real” changes in relative prices (from changes in market conditions) change consumer constraints (and alter behavior)
i.e. not “the price of x,” its about “the price of x relative to the price of y”!
Example: Imagine yourself in a strange country. All you know is that the price of bread, in local currency, is “6”...
Example: Continuing the lattes and burritos example (income is $50, lattes are $5, burritos are $10).
Suppose the price of lattes doubles from $5 to $10. Find the equation of the new budget constraint and graph it.
Return to the original price of lattes ($5) and suppose the price of burritos falls from $10 to $5. Find the equation of the new budget constraint and graph it.
Recall the law of demand
We can derive it right off the budget constraint!
Notice I have made no assumptions about rationality, preferences, utility, etc to get this!
A lot of griping about "rationality" and whether people are truly "rational"
The law of demand does not require rational people! (utility-maximizers, etc)
This is important: markets don't require rational people, they make people rational!
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Agents have objectives they value
Agents face constraints
Make tradeoffs to maximize objectives within constraints
Agents compete with others over scarce resources
Agents adjust behaviors based on prices
Stable outcomes when adjustments stop
Each of us acts purposefully
We have ends, goals, desires, objectives
We use means in the world that we believe will achieve our ends
Acting with purpose distinguishes humans from everything else in the universe
Artificial intelligence researchers face “the frame problem”
Machine learning and artificial intelligence are “dumb”
With the right models and research designs, we can say “X causes Y” and quantify it!
Economists are in a unique position to make causal claims that mere statistics cannot
For more, see my blog post, and Pearl & MacKenzie (2018), The Book of Why
“First, the field of economics has spent decades developing a toolkit aimed at investigating empirical relationships, focusing on techniques to help understand which correlations speak to a causal relationship and which do not. This comes up all the time — does Uber Express Pool grow the full Uber user base, or simply draw in users from other Uber products? Should eBay advertise on Google, or does this simply syphon off people who would have come through organic search anyway? Are African-American Airbnb users rejected on the basis of their race? These are just a few of the countless questions that tech companies are grappling with, investing heavily in understanding the extent of a causal relationship.”
Perhaps the most fundamental economic “law” is the law of demand:
We investigate its source, and derive more useful properties
First, we will need to develop a more rigorous framework
How do people decide:
Rational choice theory: assume that people optimize within constraints
A model of behavior we can extend to most scenarios
Often called “Consumer Theory” in textbooks, but realize:
Everyone is “a consumer”
We are really modeling how individuals make choices in almost any context!
Imagine a (very strange) supermarket sells x and y
Your choices: amounts of {x,y} to consume as a bundle
We can represent bundles graphically
We’ll stick with 2 goods (x,y) in 2-dimensions†
Example:
† See appendix in today's class page to extend to n goods!
If you had $100 to spend, what bundles of goods {x,y} would you buy?
Only those bundles that are affordable
Denote prices of each good as {px,py}
Let m be the amount of income a person has
If you had $100 to spend, what bundles of goods {x,y} would you buy?
Only those bundles that are affordable
Denote prices of each good as {px,py}
Let m be the amount of income a person has
A bundle {x,y} is affordable at given prices {px,py} when:
pxx+pyy≤m
pxx+pyy≤m
pxx+pyy≤m
pxx+pyy=m
† Note the difference (the in/equality): budget constraint is the subset of the budget set that spends all income.
pxx+pyy=m
pxx+pyy=m
y=mpy−pxpyx
pxx+pyy=m
y=mpy−pxpyx
pxx+pyy=m
y=mpy−pxpyx
pxx+pyy=m
y=mpy−pxpyx
Example: Suppose you have an income of $50 to spend on lattes (l) and burritos (b). The price of lattes is $5 and the price of burritos is $10.
Let l be on the horizontal axis and b be on the vertical axis.
Write an equation for the budget constraint (in graphable form).
Graph the budget constraint.
Points on the line spend all income
Points beneath line are affordable but don't use all income
Points on the line spend all income
Points beneath line are affordable but don't use all income
Points above line are unaffordable (now)
Slope: tradeoff between x and y at market prices
Relative price of x, or the opportunity cost of x:
Consuming 1 more unit of x requires giving up pxpy units of y
Opportunity cost: value of next best foregone opportunity
Even though we use money for prices, when you consume x, you’re really giving up the opportunity to consume y!
Frederic Bastiat
1801-1850
Frederic Bastiat
1801-1850
That Which is Seen and That Which is Not Seen
“That which is seen”
Frederic Bastiat
1801-1850
That Which is Seen and That Which is Not Seen
“That which is seen”
“That which is not seen”
What does it mean to say that “spending money 'stimulates' the economy”?
Scarce resources used in one industry can not be used in other industries
Every (visible) decision to spend on X yields more X, and destroys an (invisible) opportunity to spend on Y
Source: Perry, Mark, 2022, “Chart of the Day...Or Century?” American Enterprise Institute
“The Baumol effect is easy to explain but difficult to grasp. In 1826, when Beethoven’s String Quartet No. 14 was first played, it took four people 40 minutes to produce a performance. In 2010, it still took four people 40 minutes to produce a performance. Stated differently, in the nearly 200 years between 1826 and 2010, there was no growth in string quartet labor productivity. In 1826 it took 2.66 labor hours to produce one unit of output, and it took 2.66 labor hours to produce one unit of output in 2010.”
Sources: Helland, Eric and Alexander Tabarrok, 2019, “Why Are The Prices So Damn High?” Mercatus Center
Good summaries on Marginal Revolution
“Fortunately, most other sectors of the economy have experienced substantial growth in labor productivity since 1826...In 1826 the average hourly wage for a production worker was $1.14. In 2010 the average hourly wage for a production worker was $26.44, approximately 23 times higher in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Growth in average labor productivity has a surprising implication: it makes the output of slow productivity-growth sectors (relatively) more expensive. In 1826, the average wage of $1.14 meant that the 2.66 hours needed to produce a performance of Beethoven’s String Quartet No. 14 had an opportunity cost of just $3.02. At a wage of $26.44, the 2.66 hours of labor in music production had an opportunity cost of $70.33. Thus, in 2010 it was 23 times...more expensive to produce a performance of Beethoven’s String Quartet No. 14 than in 1826.”
Sources: Helland, Eric and Alexander Tabarrok, 2019, “Why Are The Prices So Damn High?” Mercatus Center
Good summaries on Marginal Revolution
“In other words, one had to give up more other goods and services to produce a music performance in 2010 than one did in 1826. Why? Simply because in 2010, society was better at producing other goods and services than in 1826.”
Sources: Helland, Eric and Alexander Tabarrok, 2019, “Why Are The Prices So Damn High?” Mercatus Center
Good summaries on Marginal Revolution
“The 23 times increase in the relative price of the string quartet is the driving force of Baumol’s cost disease. The focus on relative prices tells us that the cost disease is misnamed. The cost disease is not a disease but a blessing. To be sure, it would be better if productivity increased in all industries, but that is just to say that more is better. There is nothing negative about productivity growth, even if it is unbalanced.”
Sources: Helland, Eric and Alexander Tabarrok, 2019, “Why Are The Prices So Damn High?” Mercatus Center
Good summaries on Marginal Revolution
m=pxx+pyyy=mpy−pxpyx
Budget constraint is a function of specific parameters
Economic analysis: how changes in constraints affect people's choices
Example:
Slope unchanged (no change in prices!)
Gain/loss of affordable bundles
Example: Continuing the lattes and burritos example, (income is $50, lattes are $5, burritos are $10), suppose your income doubles to $100.
Find the equation of the new budget constraint (in graphable form).
Graph the new budget constraint.
Example:
Change in slope: −p′xpy, −p′′xpy
Gain/loss of affordable bundles
Example:
Change in slope: −pxp′y, −pxp′′y
Gain/loss of affordable bundles
Economic analysis is about (changes in) relative prices
Budget constraint slope (opportunity cost of x) is −pxpy
Only “real” changes in relative prices (from changes in market conditions) change consumer constraints (and alter behavior)
i.e. not “the price of x,” its about “the price of x relative to the price of y”!
Example: Imagine yourself in a strange country. All you know is that the price of bread, in local currency, is “6”...
Example: Continuing the lattes and burritos example (income is $50, lattes are $5, burritos are $10).
Suppose the price of lattes doubles from $5 to $10. Find the equation of the new budget constraint and graph it.
Return to the original price of lattes ($5) and suppose the price of burritos falls from $10 to $5. Find the equation of the new budget constraint and graph it.
Recall the law of demand
We can derive it right off the budget constraint!
Notice I have made no assumptions about rationality, preferences, utility, etc to get this!
A lot of griping about "rationality" and whether people are truly "rational"
The law of demand does not require rational people! (utility-maximizers, etc)
This is important: markets don't require rational people, they make people rational!